American Sniper Box Office Prediction


This report analyzes the actual box office success of the movie "American Sniper" (available online from www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart) and how it correlates with the volume of tweets in Twitter. By breaking down the tweets geographically it is possible to understand the relative local tweet volume trend per US state and identify those states that require special marketing attention to support box office success of the movie.


The entire analysis and creation of this report has been done in Bluemix. The following Bluemix elements have been used:

  1. IBM Insights for Twitter (BETA)
  2. IBM dashDB (including a prototype extension to load Twitter data)
  3. RStudio (via dashDB service)
  4. Node.JS runtime

Tweet volume for "American Sniper" per state since movie start on 2015-01-15

In this map we can see the absolute public interest in "American Sniper" expressed through tweets broken down by US state. Please note that the numbers are an extrapolation based on a 10% sample of all tweets.

Tweets Per State

Hover over a state to see
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-10000
10000-20000
20000-30000
30000-40000
40000-50000
50000+

Dependency between actual box office success and tweet volume

This diagram highlights how the actual box office success of the movie correlates with the general tweet volume trend over time. Even though there are the spikes for box office numbers on weekends, the general trend correlates with the decline of tweet volume after movie launch.


Relative decline of tweet volume per state since movie start on 2015-01-15

This map highlights the states that have the most significant decline of tweet volume since movie start. The number per state represents the percentage of tweets today compared to the number of tweets on the day the movie started in the state.

Conclusion: The states in red expose only a small percentage of tweet volume for the movie compared to the day when it started. Because we know that tweet volume can predict the actual box office success we advice to increase local marketing activity for the movie in these states.

Tweet percentage left

Hover over a state to see
<1.0%
1.0-2.0%
2.0-4.0%
4.0-5.0%
5.0-8.0%
8.0-10.0%
10.0-15.0%
15.0+%